Weekend 26. July: Final round of the Premier League

TOTAL SCORE 7W – 13L

Recap: Seems we’ve hit our first slump in the betting. I always knew that the last rounds of the season are the hardest as it is impossible to know how the teams handle pressure or the lack of it.

This Sunday we have the mega blast of 10 English premier league games at the same time, with the final round of the season. There are many games that have a lot on the line and others that have not so much. Mainly because of this I am having many double chance bets for the games as they might end up being whimpering draws as the players are just too tired after this super intense end of the season.

First, I am picking Southampton against Sheffield, with a win for Southampton or a draw. Southampton have been really solid during 2020 and not lost many games. Sheffield had a sensational season early on, but they have suffered probably most since the restart, with a limited amount of depth in their squad. Sheffield have not managed to get a win on the road since the restart and I do not see any reason for that to happen now.

Next is easy Liverpool to beat Newcastle. I like Newcastle against smaller teams, but they get whipped by the big boys and there is no one bigger than Liverpool at the moment. Even with their title celebrations on Wednesday, I do not see any other outcome than Liverpool ending their season on a win.

Next game on the list is Burnley - Brighton, a game of two very draw heavy teams, who have nothing to play for. I was considering a plain draw as a bet, but that seemed too risky for me, so I backed it up with Burnley to win just to be sure.

Final game on the list and the game with most pressure is between Leicester and Manchester United. Man U are currently 3^rd and Leicester are 5^th with only one point between them. With a win Leicester can grab one of those ever precious Champions League spots, but unfortunately, I do not see that happening. Leicester have been severely slipping since the restart of the league, and Man U have been looking dominant. Leicester are desperately missing their best creative player Maddison due to injury, and that hurts them a lot. Only issue with Man U is that their first 11 is very strong, but there is little or no depth beyond that, and that shows off in fatigue, like in the FA Cup game against Chelsea. One more point is that Man U have not lost to Leicester in six years and I do not see that changing over this game. I am still going with the X2 to secure the draw, which might be the most likely result with the high pressure of this game.

Match	Bet	Odds
Southampton - Sheffield United	1X	1,32
Newcastle United - Liverpool	2	1,40
Burnley - Brighton & Hove Albion	1X	1,38
Chelsea - Wolverhampton Wanderers	BTTS Yes	1,78
Leicester City - Manchester United	X2	1,36
TOTAL		6,17

Odds are from Unibet on Saturday 25.7.

Midweek 21.–22. July: Redemption day?

TOTAL SCORE 7W – 10L

Recap: … Well what can I say. Got all wrong over the weekend. That happens, I was very surprised by all the games we had bets on. Perhaps I have overestimated the importance of having something to play for, or even underestimated the pressure that it brings with it. For the FA Cup games I have no words. I was sure Arsenal had used all their energy against Liverpool, but no, they came up with a masterful win at Wembley against Man City. For the other game, I have no idea what Man United coach was thinking, as they played 5 at the back probably for the first time and starting Fred over Pogba. I mean, what the hell can I say, but they handed the game to Chelsea on a silver platter, and they were happy to eat that cake.

For my redemption I am going back to my usual teams with Atalanta. They are still one of the hottest teams in Europe and they enjoy scoring, especially at home. Atalanta for the win and a good bunch of goals seems like a good bet to get our line started.

Every time I struggle to put Arsenal in these lines, but they are the team I know best and there weren’t too many other inspiring games available. With the heroics of beating City and Liverpool out of the way, I believe Arsenal, especially the Arsenal defense, will return to normalcy and that includes a couple of individual errors. Arsenal are still my favourites to win the game, but I dare not to put money on that. So, with Arsenal’s attack working properly they score a couple, but Aston Villa’s efficiency and the amount of Arsenal’s defensive errors will determine the final score.

The spicy pick for this line is Chelsea to win or draw against Liverpool. My reasoning is that Chelsea play really well against big teams and Lampard is a good player manager, which is important in these games. Second reason is that Liverpool have looked sluggish after winning the league and they are mostly just playing for fun at this point, until they get to lift the trophy on Sunday.

Match	Bet	Odds
Atalanta - Bologna	Atalanta win & over 2,5 goals	1,56
Aston Villa - Arsenal	BTTS Yes	1,63
Liverpool - Chelsea	X2	1,84
TOTAL		4,68

Odds are from Unibet on Monday 21.7.

For a JOKER I wanted to highlight the odds for Watford who are against Man City. To many this game seems like a bloodbath with City walking over Watford, but I sense a possible surprise in this game. Watford quite surprisingly sacked their coach with two games left to play and I believe that is going to give them a little kick in the butt. On top of this, City is just not the same City we are used to. They were very weak against Bournemouth and didn’t do much against Arsenal, so I think they could be surprised here.

JOKER
Match	Bet	Odds
Watford - Manchester City	1	8,50

Odds are from Unibet on Monday 21.7.

Weekend 18.–20. July: FA Cup semifinals

TOTAL SCORE 7W – 5L

Recap: This midweek was not my proudest moment with me predicting only Leicester correctly. I still was on the right path with the two other games, but in the end chose the wrong bets for them. Atalanta butchered Brescia 6-1 and somehow let in the one goal and Man City was clearly saving their best for this weekend’s FA Cup game.

We are edging closer and closer to the end of the season with FA Cup semifinals this week as well as the penultimate round in the premier league. I will also have a look at some Championship games, where the fight for a promotion to the premier league is tight.

From all the games this weekend I chose five games to make up my bet. Starting off Stoke-Brentford from the championship. Brentford has been on fire since the restart and have won all their games and are one point away from the second place which would give them straight promotion. Stoke on the other hand are almost certainly out of the relegation race and they have less to fight for, so picking Brentford to win is a good choice with the 1,58 odds.

Second, I am going to the Saturday’s FA Cup with my Arsenal playing Man City. Arsenal did manage to pull out a miracle and beat Liverpool midweek and I was lucky to leave that game out of my bets as I did not believe in it. City also played a very sluggish game against Bournemouth where they actually should have lost, but they managed to hold out for the win. Still I believe Man City was just saving it for this game as their best player and the best midfielder in the world, Kevin De Bruyne, did not play in that game. So, they were saving him for today. City is also pure kryptonite for Arsenal having won handily all of the league meetings in the past few seasons, so I am picking Man City to win.

Next, I am picking Atalanta from Serie A again. This time I will just put them to win, as their stellar form is going to carry them through Verona, who are in the midtable and have really nothing left to play for.

In the second semifinal of the FA Cup we have Manchester United playing against Chelsea. This could be a spectacular game as Man U are in great form and Chelsea seem to play well against the other top teams. I still see Man U as the clear favorite. Their midfield is in sparkling form with Pogba and Fernandez dominating and at the same time Chelsea is missing their best player in Kanté, and this will be where the game is decided for me. Just to be sure, I am taking Man United to go through to final, including extra time and possible penalties, with the rather nice odds of 1,80.

I am adding the game from Monday between Sheffield and Everton to the list. Sheffield is in great home form and still fighting for European places, where as Everton seems to be in vacation mode already, so with the tasty odds of 2,15 for Sheffield I am definitely adding this to the betting card.

Match	Bet	Odds
Stoke City - Brentford	2	1,58
Arsenal - Manchester City	2	1,32
Hellas Verona - Atalanta	2	1,40
Manchester United - Chelsea	Man U to go through	1,80
Sheffield United - Everton	1	2,15
TOTAL		11,30

Odds are from Unibet on Saturday 18.7.